Beyond the formal criteria, the Nobel Peace Prize has a set of unwritten rules and traditions that shape the committee’s choices. Donald Trump, in both style and substance, violates nearly all of them, which is why experts give him almost no chance of winning. He is a candidate who simply does not fit the mold of a typical laureate.
One unwritten rule is a preference for humility and discretion. Potential laureates rarely, if ever, campaign for the award. Trump, in stark contrast, has repeatedly and publicly demanded the prize, claiming “everyone says” he should get it. This breaks with the decorum of the process and is seen as an attempt to pressure the committee.
Another tradition is the celebration of multilateralism. While not a formal requirement, the vast majority of laureates are individuals or organizations that work within the international system to build consensus. Trump’s “America First” policy was a direct rejection of this approach. His legacy is one of challenging, not strengthening, international institutions.
The committee also tends to favor candidates with a consistent, long-term commitment to a cause. Trump’s foray into Middle East diplomacy with the Abraham Accords, while notable, is seen by some as a singular event in a presidency not otherwise focused on traditional peacebuilding. The committee looks for a lifetime of work or a systemic contribution, not just one successful deal.
Finally, laureates are expected to be figures of reconciliation. Trump’s political career has been built on a foundation of division and confrontation. As historian Theo Zenou noted, “reconciliation” is not a word associated with him. By breaking these unwritten rules, Trump has positioned himself far outside the circle of candidates the Nobel committee is likely to seriously consider.
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